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Storms on the Sun’s surface can disrupt services on Earth. Eruptions of plasma on the Sun’s volatile surface, known as coronal mass ejections (CME), can eject huge quantities of high-energy particles into space.
When these particles strike the outer frontier of Earth’s atmosphere, they can generate geomagnetic storms which we see as auroras. Such storms can also cause problems with other systems such as radio communications, navigation systems, telecommunications, and electricity transmission.
Why this matters now
The risk is real. As we approach the peak of Solar Cycle 25 in July 2025—a “solar maximum” year—the risk of powerful solar storms is heightened.
According to NASA, a solar storm with similar intensity to the Carrington Event hit Earth around 774 AD. A study reported in January 2022 revealed that a powerful solar storm hit Earth 9,200 years ago depositing radioactive particles in ice deep below Greenland. A 2020 study suggested that severe geomagnetic storms occurred in 42 of the preceding 150 years, significantly more often than had been thought. In 1989, Quebec’s electricity grid was degraded for nine hours due to a solar storm. In 2012, a CME narrowly missed earth, with estimates that if it had hit many high-voltage transformers in the electricity grid could have been destroyed. In 2022, a CME destroyed almost 40 satellites.
The ‘Carrington Event’
The most intense and damaging solar storm recorded is the ‘Carrington Event’ of 1- 2 September 1859. The Carrington Event sparked a huge geomagnetic storm that wreaked havoc with technology. Earth fell silent as telegraph communications around the world failed There were reports of sparks showering from telegraph machines, operators receiving electric shocks and papers set ablaze by the rogue sparks. The following day telegraph workers still felt to effects of the Carrington Event as the atmosphere was still very charged. Reportedly, American Telegraph Company employees found it impossible to transmit or receive dispatches. They found that they could unplug their batteries and transmit messages using only the residual auroral current.
Skywatchers around the world saw polar light shows stretched far beyond their usual ranges. The northern lights (aurora borealis) were witnessed as far south as Cuba and Hawaii, whilst the southern lights (aurora australis) were seen as far north as Chile.
The Carrington Event is the largest solar storm witnessed, however analysis of carbon-14 in tree rings suggests there were solar storms in the 8th and 10th centuries that were up to ten times more powerful than the Carrington Event.
The Carrington Event occurred in Solar Cycle 10. We are currently in Solar Cycle 25, expected to peak in July 2025 a ‘solar maximum’ year. It is expected 2025 will witness powerful solar storms that could affect and damage infrastructure and the natural environment on Earth.
Solar storms rarely pose a direct threat to human life but there is a risk they can impact safety-critical systems via electromagnetic effects. That means space-based communications, navigation and weather forecasting services could be disabled as could electricity power distribution on the Earth’s surface.
Consequences of a ‘Carrington Event’ today?
A geomagnetic storm of Carrington Event magnitude occurring today has the potential to cause natural damage, systems disruptions, telecommunication outages, and electricity blackouts which will be much more significant in 2025 than in 1859 because of contemporary societies’ reliance on technology and electricity. One assessment suggests a storm today, on the scale of the Carrington event, could cause long-term outages to the Internet thus silencing all personal, commercial, and government activities that rely on the Internet.
Accordingly, the UK Government lists adverse space weather as one of the most serious natural hazards in its National Risk Register. Some companies have contingency plans to deal with severe events but anticipate sufficient warning time to act.
To form an appreciation of the consequences of a Carrington-like event today the insurer Lloyd’s of London reported in 2013 its assessment that such an event would cost between US$600 billion and US$2.6 trillion (about US$3.5 trillion today) for the United States alone.
Implications for Australian Critical Infrastructure Entities
The consequences of a severe solar storm today include:
- Widespread System Disruptions: Power grids, telecommunications, and satellite-based systems could fail.
- Internet and Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) Systems Outages: Critical PNT services that support energy, transport, and communication sectors may degrade, leading to cascading failures.
- Economic Impact: An event of Carrington-like magnitude could result in losses of trillions of dollars globally.
Recommended Actions for Critical Infrastructure Entities
To address this growing risk, we recommend the following steps for Australian critical infrastructure owners and operators:
1. Stay Informed on Solar Activity:
- Leverage tools such as the Bureau of Meteorology’s Australian Space Weather Alert System (ASWAS) for real-time updates.
- Maintain situational awareness of space weather conditions and their potential impacts.
2. Evaluate PNT Dependencies:
- Conduct an audit of your organisation’s reliance on PNT systems for operations.
- Assess the potential impact of PNT disruptions on your critical infrastructure assets and operations.
3. Enhance Resilience and Mitigation Measures:
- Harden PNT-related equipment against interference (e.g., anti-jamming/spoofing measures, encryption).
- Implement redundancy by diversifying PNT sources (e.g., multi-constellation Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, terrestrial alternatives, high-quality holdover devices).
- Test all redundancy measures as part of a PNT resilience testing regime.
3. Cybersecurity Posture:
- Strengthen your organisation’s cybersecurity measures to protect GNSS- connected systems from jamming, spoofing, and cyberattacks.
- Follow best practices outlined in the Australian Signals Directorate’s Information Security Manual.
4. Review Critical Infrastructure Risk Management Programs:
- As required by the Security of Critical Infrastructure Act 2018 (SOCI Act) and the Security of Critical Infrastructure (Critical Infrastructure Risk Management Program) Rules 2023, integrate PNT risk assessments into your CIRMP.
- Develop and implement mitigation strategies for identified vulnerabilities.
5. Plan for Contingencies:
- Develop incident response plans to address potential disruptions caused by solar storms.
- Ensure coordination with stakeholders and government agencies to maintain operational continuity.
Why act now?
With Solar Cycle 25 reaching its peak in 2025, the likelihood of impactful solar events is high. Proactive measures now can help mitigate risks to your organisation’s operations and Australia’s critical infrastructure resilience.
For more guidance on mitigating PNT risks and preparing for solar storm impacts, please contact Pentagram Advisory. Our experts can assist with CIRMP development, PNT risk assessments, and tailored strategies to enhance your organisation’s resilience.
Interested in learning more?
Join our online workshop with the special guest speaker FrontierSI, ‘SOCI Workshop: Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) Systems – Security Risk to Critical Infrastructure Sectors,‘ on 11 February from 2:30 to 3:30 pm REGISTER HERE
By addressing PNT vulnerabilities through a structured, integrated, and proactive approach, organisations can safeguard critical infrastructure, maintain compliance, and ensure long-term resilience in an evolving threat landscape.